New Seat Details - Midlothian and Upper Tweeddale

This page shows the detail of the calculations performed to estimate the general election result for 2017 had the new boundaries for Midlothian and Upper Tweeddale been in force at that time. The basic idea of the calculation is to look at the district council wards which make up the new seat, and estimate how they voted in 2017. This estimate is based on the recent local election results in those wards, with adjustments made to allow for different turnouts and different voting patterns for local and general elections.

In many cases, wards are divided between several old constituencies or between new constituencies. So the same ward may be shown more than once, but the electorate shown will reflect that ward sub-section.

Election results from a recent local election are given. This is usually the local election closest to 2015 from the period 2012-2015. For multiple-member wards, the votes shown are the sum of the votes cast for all candidates of each party. A negative number indicates candidate(s) elected unopposed.

Calculation method

There are two problems with using the raw (actual) local election results to imply general election results ward-by-ward. Firstly, turnout can be different between local and general elections, which means that the total number of local votes cast does not equal the number of votes cast in each old seat at the general election. To correct for this, we adjust the local votes to match the general election turnout. Each ward's result is scaled, whilst keeping constant the percentage support for each party, so that the total turnout adds up to the old seat's general election turnout. All wards in the old seat are assumed to have the same percentage turnout.

Party	Implied 2017 Votes	Implied 2017 Share
SNP	18,519	34.5%
LAB	17,224	32.0%
CON	15,768	29.3%
LIB	2,233	4.2%
SNP Majority	1,295	2.4%

Secondly, even though we now have the correct number of votes in the old seat, the party totals will not match the general election result. Some parties do better at the local election than the general election, and others do vice versa. We call these strong and weak parties respectively. The next step is to transfer votes from strong parties to weak parties. This is done by taking votes proportionally away from strong parties and putting them in a transfer pool. For instance if a party got 12,500 local votes, but only 10,000 general election votes, it will lose 20% over all the wards. These votes in each ward will be put in the ward's transfer pool and allocated to the weak parties. Weak parties will get votes transferred to them in proportion to the votes they need over the old seat. For instance, if two weak parties need 4,000 and 1,000 votes respectively, the first party will get 80% of each ward's transfer pool and the second party will get 20% of each ward's transfer pool. The transfer of votes between parties is done using the Electoral Calculus Transition Model.

Midlothian and Upper Tweeddale: Map

List of old seats forming part of Midlothian and Upper Tweeddale

Old seat: Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	SNP Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Dumfries and Galloway	Annandale East and Eskdale	9,492	Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East	3,912	1,043	316	0	0	1,786	0	0	7,057
Dumfries and Galloway	Annandale North	10,137	Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East	4,201	931	284	0	0	2,040	0	0	7,456
Dumfries and Galloway	Annandale South	10,771	Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East	3,730	2,069	388	0	0	2,077	0	0	8,264
Dumfries and Galloway	Lochar	2,030	Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East; Galloway and Dumfries	666	307	45	0	0	461	0	0	1,479
Dumfries and Galloway	Mid and Upper Nithsdale	6,453	Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East	2,284	1,215	87	0	0	1,388	0	0	4,974
Dumfries and Galloway	Nith	2,050	Galloway and Dumfries	679	422	53	0	0	470	0	0	1,624
Scottish Borders	Tweeddale East	7,299	Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk; Midlothian and Upper Tweeddale	2,630	528	292	0	0	1,847	0	0	5,297
Scottish Borders	Tweeddale West	7,477	Midlothian and Upper Tweeddale	2,774	471	348	0	0	1,912	0	0	5,505
South Lanarkshire	Clydesdale East	6,535	Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East	2,248	496	88	0	0	1,770	0	0	4,602
South Lanarkshire	Clydesdale South	3,471	Dumfriesshire and Lanarkshire South East	1,052	619	49	0	0	984	0	0	2,704
	Total	65,715		24,176	8,101	1,950	0	0	14,735	0	0	48,962

Old seat: Midlothian

The table shows the transfer-adjusted results for each ward in the old seat of Midlothian, as well as showing which new seat each ward is in.

Old seat: Midlothian				Transfer-adjusted Results
District	Ward	Electorate 2017	New Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	SNP Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
Midlothian	Bonnyrigg	12,705	Midlothian and Upper Tweeddale	2,325	3,288	203	0	0	2,734	0	0	8,550
Midlothian	Dalkeith	9,447	Midlothian and Upper Tweeddale	1,406	2,712	261	0	0	2,056	0	0	6,435
Midlothian	Midlothian East	11,111	Midlothian and Upper Tweeddale	2,042	2,703	177	0	0	2,894	0	0	7,816
Midlothian	Midlothian South	10,253	Midlothian and Upper Tweeddale	1,720	2,997	156	0	0	2,397	0	0	7,270
Midlothian	Midlothian West	11,047	Midlothian and Upper Tweeddale	2,084	2,513	357	0	0	2,644	0	0	7,598
Midlothian	Penicuik	10,745	Midlothian and Upper Tweeddale	1,945	2,244	568	0	0	2,848	0	0	7,605
	Total	65,308		11,522	16,457	1,722	0	0	15,573	0	0	45,274

The full details of these calculations are given on the Midlothian seat details page. Click on "Show workings".

New seat: Midlothian and Upper Tweeddale

District	Ward	Electorate 2017	Old Seat	CON Votes	LAB Votes	LIB Votes	UKIP Votes	Green Votes	SNP Votes	MIN Votes	OTH Votes	Total Votes
New seat: Midlothian and Upper Tweeddale
Midlothian	Bonnyrigg	12,904	Midlothian	2,325	3,288	203	0	0	2,734	0	0	8,550
Midlothian	Dalkeith	9,712	Midlothian	1,406	2,712	261	0	0	2,056	0	0	6,435
Midlothian	Midlothian East	11,797	Midlothian	2,042	2,703	177	0	0	2,894	0	0	7,816
Midlothian	Midlothian South	10,972	Midlothian	1,720	2,997	156	0	0	2,397	0	0	7,270
Midlothian	Midlothian West	11,467	Midlothian	2,084	2,513	357	0	0	2,644	0	0	7,598
Midlothian	Penicuik	11,476	Midlothian	1,945	2,244	568	0	0	2,848	0	0	7,605
Scottish Borders	Tweeddale East	4,099	Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale	1,472	296	163	0	0	1,034	0	0	2,965
Scottish Borders	Tweeddale West	7,608	Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale	2,774	471	348	0	0	1,912	0	0	5,505
	Total	80,035		15,768	17,224	2,233	0	0	18,519	0	0	53,744

And these are the implied results for 2017 for the new seat of Midlothian and Upper Tweeddale. Please note that the wards used are those of 2015 in order to be consistent with those used by the Boundary Commissions.

Implied MP at 2017:	Unknown (changed seat) (SNP)
County/Area:	Edinburgh area (Scotland)
Electorate:	80,035
Turnout:	67.2%

Midlothian and Upper Tweeddale: New Boundaries 2018 Calculation

Midlothian and Upper Tweeddale: Overview

Introduction